Nico Popuescu
Eurasia Union: the real, the imaginary and the likely
ISS. Chaillot Paper # 132. September 2014
The recent history of attempts to reintegrate the post-Soviet space is littered with failed political and economic initiatives. Such initiatives have included the creation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in the 1990s, the Eurasian Economic Community launched in 2000, and the GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova) grouping launched in 1997. So far the only project which seems likely to come to fruition is the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan which is scheduled to become the Eurasian Economic Union as of 1 January 2015. [+]

La Comisión ha actuado de forma rápida introduciendo medidas de emergencia en el mercado para paliar los efectos del embargo ruso a ciertos productos europeos. El 7 de agosto Rusia anunciaba que, desde el día siguiente, prohibía la importación de determinadas carnes, lácteos, frutas, verduras y productos alimenticios transformados de la UE, EE.UU., Canadá, Australia y Noruega. (W3 Comisión Europea. Representación en España, 5.9.2014)

Lunes, 09 Junio 2014 13:03

Ucrania: cuatro crisis, un país

Nico Popuescu
Ukraine: four crises, one country
ISS. Institute for Security Studies Briefss # 16. May 2014
For most of the last two decades, virtually every Ukrainian election or opinion poll has revealed two Ukraines – one Western-leaning and another looking to Moscow; one voting Timoshenko or Yushchenko and another pro Yanukovich; one against Putin and another in favour of him. Unsurprisingly, many feared that the ousting of Yanukovich, the Russian annexation of Crimea, and the infiltration of eastern Ukraine by Russian military intelligence would cause Ukraine to split in two or collapse altogether like a house of cards. Ukraine still faces four interconnected existential crises: economic, political, territorial, and diplomatic (with Russia). It is also clear that even if the country manages to overcome these challenges, it will not be left unscathed. The past three months, however, have shown that Ukraine was not a powder keg waiting to explode, despite several matches having been thrown at it. The country’s resilience has proven stronger than many assumed (both in Russia and the rest of Europe), and while its blend of problems might be poisonous, they are not insurmountable. Petro Poroshenko’s unexpectedly smooth popular election – with support drawn evenly across Ukraine – represents a potential turning point in the spiral of overlapping crises that have characterised its recent past. [+]

Iana Dreyer, Nicu Popescu
The Eurasian Customs Union: the economics and the politics
ISS. Institute for Security Studies Briefss # 10. March 2014
Long ignored by the West, the Eurasian Customs Union (consisting of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) has recently been brought into the international limelight. The project – an attempt by the Kremlin to create a rival to the European Union and its Eastern Partnership project – attracted attention when Moscow, with its characteristic bluntness, began to pressure Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine to join the grouping and drop their plans to sign Association Agreements with the EU. The Eurasian Customs Union came into force in 2010 and is expected to become a fully-fledged ‘Eurasian Union’ in 2015. Previous Russian-led attempts to create trading zones and customs unions among members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) ran into the sand. But will this one fare differently? In a region where border management practices and bureaucracies are notoriously inefficient, the union already works reasonably well. That said, the project has inherent economic and political flaws that could yet cause it to derail. [+]

Jesús López Medel
Ucrania: indispensable salto adelante y no en el vacío
Estudios de Política Exterior. Política Exterior # 158. 2014
Más allá de encontrar una salida al dilema entre Rusia y la UE, Ucrania necesita un consenso sobre el país que quiere ser: sobre el carácter democrático de sus instituciones y las reglas del juego. Ucrania es la cuna de Rusia en términos geográficos, culturales y étnicos. En efecto, Rusia tiene su origen en la constitución del primer Estado eslavo federal que, conocido como la Rus de Kiev, desde finales del siglo IX, conjugaría elementos eslavos orientales con la cultura y religión cristiana de Bizancio, lo cual pervive nítidamente en la actualidad. Su desintegración en varios principados hizo que el de Moscú aglutinase buena parte de su fuerza, y sobre él surgió siglos después Rusia, y lo que desde el siglo XVII sería el imperio que mantuvo congelado un sistema feudal luego sustituido por otra concepción internacionalista-imperialista con la Unión Soviética. [+]

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